M

MarketPulse

Trading calendar · impact forecasts

Rolling 10-event window

Predicted vs actual.

Each row compares what the model expected an event to do versus how the tape actually reacted in the hours after the print. Partial credit is awarded when the market's direction was flat or the prediction was intentionally mixed.

Overall accuracy
82%
Hits
24
Partials
1
Misses
5
Accuracy by category
Inflation100%
n = 5 predictions
Earnings100%
n = 3 predictions
Geopolitical100%
n = 6 predictions
Central Bank90%
n = 10 predictions
Employment50%
n = 3 predictions
GDP0%
n = 3 predictions
10 events
🇺🇸
Jun 18, 2026 · United States · Central Bank

FOMC Rate Decision (Jun)

Outcome: Dovish hold · Model confidence 74%
80%
4H · 0P · 1M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
S&P 500
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+1.42%
Hit
US 10Y Yield
24h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-3.10%
Hit
DXY
24h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-0.62%
Hit
Gold
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+1.85%
Hit
BTC
24h window
▲bullish
▼bearish-0.40%
Miss
🇯🇵
Jun 14, 2026 · Japan · Central Bank

BoJ Policy Rate (Jun)

Outcome: Unchanged (hawkish tone) · Model confidence 63%
100%
2H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
USD/JPY
24h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-1.75%
Hit
Nikkei 225
24h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-0.85%
Hit
🇺🇸
Jun 11, 2026 · United States · Inflation

US Core CPI (May)

Outcome: Cooler than expected · Model confidence 71%
100%
3H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
S&P 500
6h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+0.95%
Hit
US 2Y Yield
6h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-4.20%
Hit
USD/JPY
6h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-0.75%
Hit
🇺🇸
Jun 6, 2026 · United States · Employment

US Nonfarm Payrolls

Outcome: Hot print · Model confidence 58%
50%
1H · 1P · 1M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
DXY
6h window
◇mixed
▲bullish+0.55%
Partial
Gold
6h window
▲bullish
▼bearish-0.90%
Miss
S&P 500
6h window
◇mixed
▼bearish-0.35%
Hit
🇪🇺
Jun 5, 2026 · Eurozone · Central Bank

ECB Deposit Rate (Jun)

Outcome: 25bps cut · Model confidence 68%
100%
3H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
EUR/USD
6h window
◇mixed
▼bearish-0.28%
Hit
DAX
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+0.72%
Hit
Bund 10Y
24h window
◆neutral
◆neutral+0.10%
Hit
🛢️
Jun 2, 2026 · Global · Geopolitical

OPEC+ Meeting (Jun)

Outcome: Cuts extended · Model confidence 55%
100%
3H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
WTI Crude
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+2.40%
Hit
CAD
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+0.35%
Hit
Airlines
24h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-1.10%
Hit
🇺🇸
May 22, 2026 · United States · Earnings

NVIDIA Q1 Earnings

Outcome: Beat + strong guide · Model confidence 66%
100%
3H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
NVDA
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+6.80%
Hit
Nasdaq 100
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+1.55%
Hit
SOXX
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+3.20%
Hit
🇬🇧
May 21, 2026 · United Kingdom · Inflation

UK CPI (Apr)

Outcome: In-line · Model confidence 62%
100%
2H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
GBP/USD
6h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-0.42%
Hit
FTSE 100
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+0.28%
Hit
🌍
May 8, 2026 · Middle East · Geopolitical

Red Sea Shipping Escalation

Outcome: Escalation · Model confidence 70%
100%
3H · 0P · 0M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
WTI Crude
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+3.10%
Hit
Gold
24h window
▲bullish
▲bullish+1.20%
Hit
S&P 500
24h window
▼bearish
▼bearish-0.55%
Hit
🇨🇳
Apr 16, 2026 · China · GDP

China GDP Q1

Outcome: Missed · Model confidence 60%
0%
0H · 0P · 3M
AssetPredictedActualMoveDeltaVerdict
AUD/USD
24h window
▲bullish
▼bearish-0.68%
Miss
Copper
24h window
▲bullish
▼bearish-1.20%
Miss
HSI
24h window
▲bullish
▼bearish-1.90%
Miss